Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 51.216754 56.665474 62.800461 70.295980 79.314016 89.958308 103.697741
2025-02-09 43.884428 50.981771 59.653236 71.305030 87.021352 108.265639 140.731055
2025-02-16 39.098247 46.781192 56.656269 70.779608 91.417695 122.340007 176.841190
2025-02-23 35.677149 43.618863 54.219394 70.130439 94.943472 135.587660 217.631096
2025-03-02 32.739573 40.666506 51.548965 68.499182 96.338710 145.490100 257.846019
2025-03-09 30.509945 38.411628 49.525152 67.409526 98.202869 156.605723 308.524151
2025-03-16 28.132510 35.725345 46.572511 64.406619 96.106306 159.326183 340.652899
2025-03-23 27.477852 35.419689 47.079586 66.997986 104.535439 187.012506 478.319311
2025-03-30 26.163127 34.036060 45.792182 66.367698 106.654562 201.282576 594.310175
2025-04-06 24.896568 32.630665 44.340390 65.250923 107.543945 212.921506 726.150842
2025-04-13 23.411367 30.806375 42.086085 62.449333 104.377951 212.404113 792.933861
2025-04-20 23.162646 30.840010 42.812109 65.148902 113.756495 253.338076 1340.777324
2025-04-27 22.963785 30.979642 43.795138 68.632437 126.394785 317.426786 3254.258004
2025-05-04 22.326255 30.391403 43.509514 69.624614 133.386156 369.308661 9279.241181
2025-05-11 21.509623 29.462744 42.554954 69.118798 136.314764 407.601446 43588.094004
2025-05-18 20.745884 28.574816 41.602005 68.493527 138.789045 447.919561 NaN
2025-05-25 19.906532 27.519554 40.278291 66.921763 138.146992 471.130849 NaN
2025-06-01 19.203976 26.655946 39.243836 65.871402 138.883141 505.834829 NaN
2025-06-08 18.294376 25.411454 37.450392 62.974914 133.280383 491.364043 NaN
2025-06-15 18.170446 25.468602 38.035238 65.474609 145.708735 638.395017 NaN
2025-06-22 17.652910 24.837692 37.302690 64.866807 147.623361 703.964139 NaN
2025-06-29 17.109678 24.140953 36.407639 63.789576 147.654052 753.560926 NaN
2025-07-06 16.398115 23.133239 34.879502 61.085493 141.255398 717.994792 NaN